Have Ukrainian refugees revived diseases like whooping cough, scarlet fever and scabies that were once nearly eradicated in the Czech Republic? No, that's not true: Statistics indicate that these conditions have not been nearly erased there. According to the spokeswoman for the State Health Institute, the data and epidemic patterns of these conditions suggest that their recent increase is not linked to the arrival of Ukrainian refugees two years ago.
The claim appeared in a video (archived here) on TikTok by @incorrectcz on January 23, 2024. The text overlay (translated from Czech to English by Lead Stories staff) read:
Diseases that have not been here for years are on the rise! Guess why?
The title read (as translated):
There is an increase in diseases that we have almost successfully eradicated. What a coincidence
The man in the video implied that the arrival of Ukrainian refugees in 2022 is linked to a recent spike in several conditions, including whooping cough, scarlet fever and scabies. In the video, he said (as translated):
How long has it been? Two years since the Russian invasion and a related wave of refugees from Ukraine? How long has it been? A year and nine months since we have discussed that the Ukrainians will certainly bring with them some contagious diseases because some vaccinations are not mandatory there. And how long has it been? A year and nine months since fact checkers and the media have been stuffing us with [tales] that any increased incidence of illnesses is ruled out, everything is under control, and the rubbish about the spread of such diseases is being spread by pro-Russian conspiratards? And what comes out two years later? ... Whooping cough, scabies, and scarlet fever are on the rise in Czechia. And the SZU [the State Health Institute] warns that the situation will worsen. And of course, it has no relation to anything at all.
This is what the post looked like on TikTok at the time of writing:
(Source: TikTok screenshot taken on Thu Feb 22 11:43:33 2024 UTC)
As shown by the data and the observed cycles of disease incidence, this development has absolutely nothing to do with refugees from Ukraine.
As an illustration, the Czech Republic documented 1,233 cases of whooping cough in 2013, followed by 2,521 cases in 2014, marking the highest figures in the past decade, according to the statistics. However, pertussis incidence saw a significant decline during the COVID-19 pandemic, with only 51 cases reported in 2021 and 96 cases in 2022, coinciding with the year when refugees fled Ukraine.
The incidence of respiratory infections such as pertussis and scarlet fever in the population has been minimized [during the pandemic]. We are currently seeing their growth and the population is likely re-establishing herd immunity.
The current whooping cough surge is not only caused by the so-called untrained immunity during the pandemic years, but also due to a decrease in the child vaccination rate and fading immunity in some adults who were last vaccinated under the mandatory immunization calendar in childhood.
A wave of pertussis has affected several other European countries, despite having lower per-capita Ukrainian refugee populations compared to the Czech Republic. European Commission data (archived here) indicates that as of December 2023, the Czech Republic had 34.5 Ukrainian refugees per 1,000 people, representing the highest ratio of non-EU citizens who fled the invasion of Ukraine and were under temporary protection. According to the Communicable Disease Threat Report from December 17-23, 2023 (archived here), issued by the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (archived here), Belgium, Denmark, Croatia and Norway have also encountered waves of pertussis.
